We have severe thunderstorms and destructive tornadoes in the deep south, followed by blizzard conditions right behind it in the Mississippi Valley. This powerhouse storm will take a track to the eastern seaboard by Wednesday night. There has been very good model consistency, run to run and amongst each other, to almost guarantee all rain for NYC, south & east to the coast- perhaps 2-3″+. A wintry mix will fall just inland, changing to rain as well, but about 3-6″ of snow farther north and west, like towards I84- before any mix or change. The big snow winners will be central and western N.Y. and P.A., up into the New England ski resorts with a foot or more.
That’s the precipitation; now to focus on the wind. The intensity of this storm could produce 30-50 mph gusts with the potential of near hurricane force gusts near the coast. Tree and power-line damage is unfortunately a good bet again so have batteries and flashlights ready and gas up the generator just in case.
Even worse, our storm ravaged coastline and beaches may take another beating. Tides could run three to five feet above normal and we are approaching the full moon (on Friday). Offshore waves could run 12-18 feet high and propagate towards land. This will result in new beach erosion and coastal inundation at high tide. No, this is not as bad as Sandy thank goodness, but sand reclamation and rebuilding of dunes has only just started and may not be able to hold back the surging ocean.
This storm will slowly depart during Thursday. Friday looks OK. A third storm, if it’s close enough, it will affect us over the weekend with more snow or rain. At this moment, odds favor that one to be leaning a little more towards snow